Optimism Bias: 8 Lessons I’ve Learnt from Failed Promises

Optimism Bias: 8 Lessons I’ve Learnt from Failed Promises

A client asked me to accompany him for an 11 o ‘ clock program intended for final year students.

It was impromptu and so a few things like roll up banners were hastily ordered the night before, with the intention of picking them up the following morning.

However, by the next day, we had traffic jams and delays to contend with and we eventually abandoned the optimistic idea that we could pick these items and be on time for the program.

This situation of planning without a reality check is called optimism bias i.e. the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of completing a task

And here are quick takeaways I’ve gathered from this event and others like it.

1. No one intends to lie about keeping their promises

People are far from lying when they declare an intention and don’t follow through. Lifehack product manager Brian Lee believes that if anything, “they want desperately to be right, to improve themselves, and to make their friends and family happy.”

However, expectations don’t influence reality and when push comes to shove some of them don’t make it past our minds.

In practice: 80% percent of resolution makers abandon their plans by February not because they were lying when they said they would follow through but because they adopted an

  • all or nothing mentality: here people intend to lift a tree all at once instead of picking their fruits one by one .

The problem with such overly optimistic plans is that once you don’t make it through a day of achieving them you easily get discouraged and abandon everything.

2. Declaring an intention isn’t the same as achieving it

It doesn’t matter if you’ve decided to climb Mount Everest or take a power walk to boost blood circulation.

What matters is performing the action itself.

With this in mind we should be wary of the self-satisfaction having a great plan gives and instead focus all our energies on taking steps to achieve them.

In practice: instead of only saying you will climb Mount Everest. Try googling the price of a flight ticket to your location, hotel bookings and commit funds to that purpose.

3.Avoid the planning fallacy

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in a 1977 paper coined out the planning fallacy term which points to our tendency to underestimate completion time for projects.

In practice: You exhibit planning fallacy when you promise an early submission without realizing the difficulties involved or planning for unforeseen events.

Like the case of my client who didn’t plan for traffic jams, and delays.

The fix: The best way to work around this is to assume how long a task would take if aliens suddenly invaded the earth.

It sounds pessimistic but its one way to avoid shooting yourself in the leg and disappointing people.

4. Take forward steps not side ones

Forward steps are movements that are necessary for achieving a goal side steps are those that don’t add anything to it.

I remember how once I almost missed a flight due to my in-law’s fiddling with the car stereo. He wanted “music for the road” and spent nearly an hour trying to get the stereo to work properly.

Our task initially was simple

1. Get into the car

2. Drive to the airport.

The moment he started fiddling with the mp3 player he introduced a side step and we were sidetracked.

These little side actions e.g that funny video you want to watch before writing an article or that snack you prefer consuming before compiling a spreadsheet are subtle signs of procastinating and make completing your actual task harder.

Kindly build an intolerance level toward them.

5. it’s not hard:

An unperformed action always seems hard and we are optimistic that in a later time the energy and time for it will materialize.

For instance: I deferred writing this post for a week because I felt it would take up time I didn’t have.

In practice: Am writing it now and realizing that yes it’s taking up time but it’s not as difficult as I imagined.

Fix: Realize that it’s all in the mind and once you set your mind to a task you will breeze through it.

6.Always work with what you have

Most people will say the reason they never start their dream careers was down to a lack of funds, no experience or simply no time. But in today’s world where anything can be started on a computer these are clearly excuses.

You don’t need the whole world to get a thing done. You already have the most important — your desire.

7. If it’s not done now it will never be done

The later department is where plans die. The ‘now’ where actions are birthed.

If you are the type that gets comfortable deferring work to a later time ask yourself how many tasks deferred to “later” ever saw the light of day … Chances are only a few.

If you have some laundry that needs doing? do it now, a contact to email? do it now, a friend to see? do it now.

Don’t defer to later. It never gets done.

8.Stay disciplined.

Discipline ensures you accept that there are no such things as good or bad times to perform an action.

It’s common to play that background music or want to “be in the mood” to get things done.

But these are momentary feelings which come and go.

Discipline however stays with you. It’s the objective muscle we build to get things done regardless of outward events.

To be disciplined you need two things:

  • consistency: Performing a task repeatedly builds stamina for the rigor associated with it and ensures you can handle it at anytime
  • Passion: it’s difficult and almost impossible to be consistent with what you don’t like. E.g. a job you hate.

In practice: You can be consistent with baking lessons only if you are a pastry fan or posting on Medium only if you like writing.

Final thoughts

Have you been making promises and not following through? or making plans without reality checks? Following these tips above could help you stop this habit or at least greatly lower your tendency to do so.

Apply them and enjoy the self esteem that comes from keeping your word.

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